Day-by-day tracking of the war and its impact on oil prices
The IEA cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by 730,000 barrels per day, projecting the first annual contraction since the pandemic as high prices and supply chaos ground down consumption.
Brent fell below $98 and Asian stocks surged after Trump said Iranian officials reached out wanting to negotiate. Pakistan has offered to host the next round.
The Rich Starry, a US-sanctioned tanker owned by a Shanghai company, became the first vessel to exit the Gulf since Trump's blockade began. Oil fell below $98.
Six major banks and forecasters have published oil price targets ranging from $85 to $150 a barrel. The entire spread hinges on one question: how long does Hormuz stay closed?
President Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday after VP Vance departed Islamabad without a deal. Traders are bracing for a volatile open when futures markets resume Sunday evening.
VP Vance departed Pakistan after marathon talks with Iran broke down over nuclear weapons. The ceasefire expires April 22 with no follow-up scheduled.
The IEA calls the Hormuz closure the largest supply disruption in oil market history. At 9.1 million bpd shut in, it dwarfs every crisis since WWII.
VP Vance and Iran's Ghalibaf opened direct talks in Pakistan, the first high-level meeting between Washington and Tehran in 47 years. Oil markets are watching.
Iran's strikes cut 600,000 bpd from Saudi fields. The real blow: crippling the kingdom's only export pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.