Day-by-day tracking of the war and its impact on oil prices
Analysts predicted $150 oil if Hormuz shut down. Ten weeks in, Brent sits at $107. China's strategic reserves, low starting prices, and stubborn deal optimism explain the gap.
The national average jumped 25 cents for the second straight week to $4.55, up 53% since the war began. Analysts warn $5 is coming before the holiday weekend.
Brent crude jumped back above $103 after a US Navy jet disabled an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, rattling deal hopes as Iran's response deadline arrives.
Brent fell to $97.42 on Thursday, down $17 from Monday's peak. Iran's parliament speaker mocked deal reports as "Operation Fauxios." Tehran's response is due today.
Brent broke below $98, down $11.67 on the day, after Axios reported the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page deal to end the war. Trump paused Project Freedom.
WTI broke below $96 on Wednesday, nearly 10% below Monday's close. Brent fell to $104. Five bearish forces are hitting at once as the market reprices the war.
Brent fell $4.31 to $110.13 after Monday's 2026 high of $114. US helicopters sank six Iranian boats during Project Freedom's first convoy, but both sides say the ceasefire holds.
An Iranian drone struck the VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah, damaging two storage tanks at the endpoint of the only pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged past $113.
The US military began guiding stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, deploying 15,000 troops, guided-missile destroyers, and over 100 aircraft. Iran's IRGC warned it will attack any foreign forces entering the waterway.