Storage tanks running low
European gas storage sites were just 35% full as of February 10, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Germany’s reserves sat even lower, at roughly 32%. Both figures mark the weakest seasonal levels since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis across the continent.
If current withdrawal rates hold, EU storage could drop to 30% by April 1. That would leave Europe with its thinnest winter-exit buffer in four years, right as the continent needs to start refilling tanks for next winter.
How Europe got here
A colder-than-normal winter drove heating demand well above forecasts. At the same time, Europe has lost most of its Russian pipeline gas. Transit through Ukraine stopped at the end of 2024, and the EU has committed to phasing out all remaining Russian gas imports by November 2027.
LNG has filled much of the gap. It now accounts for roughly 60% of Europe’s gas supply, up from less than 30% before the crisis. Europe imported a record 175 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025 and is on pace to hit 185 bcm this year.
But LNG pricing works against storage refills. Futures contracts for near-term delivery trade above longer-dated ones, a market structure called backwardation. That makes buying gas now and storing it for winter an expensive bet.
Relief on the horizon
A wave of new LNG export capacity from the United States and Qatar is scheduled to come online between 2026 and 2029. The IEA expects this supply boost to eventually ease price pressure and help Europe rebuild its buffer.
EU regulations require member states to reach 80% to 90% storage by November. Meeting that target from a 30% starting point would demand aggressive buying through spring and summer, likely keeping European gas prices elevated well into the second half of the year.
Henry Hub natural gas traded at $3.09 per MMBtu on Monday. The European TTF benchmark has shown sharp volatility as traders price in the storage shortfall.
Bigger picture
Europe’s gas market has been transformed since 2022. The continent went from depending on cheap Russian pipeline supply to competing globally for LNG cargoes. Four years later, storage levels are a reminder that the transition is far from over. One cold winter still exposes how thin the margin of safety really is.