
Brent crashes through $100 as US and Iran near deal to end the war
Brent broke below $98, down $11.67 on the day, after Axios reported the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page deal to end the war. Trump paused Project Freedom.
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Brent broke below $98, down $11.67 on the day, after Axios reported the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page deal to end the war. Trump paused Project Freedom.

WTI broke below $96 on Wednesday, nearly 10% below Monday's close. Brent fell to $104. Five bearish forces are hitting at once as the market reprices the war.

Brent fell $4.31 to $110.13 after Monday's 2026 high of $114. US helicopters sank six Iranian boats during Project Freedom's first convoy, but both sides say the ceasefire holds.

An Iranian drone struck the VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah, damaging two storage tanks at the endpoint of the only pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged past $113.

The US military began guiding stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, deploying 15,000 troops, guided-missile destroyers, and over 100 aircraft. Iran's IRGC warned it will attack any foreign forces entering the waterway.

WTI fell 3.25% to $101.76 as Iran responded to US peace terms and the IEA's demand destruction warning keeps pulling the ceiling lower on crude prices.

Kharg Island storage tanks hit 74% capacity as the US blockade chokes off exports. Analysts say Iran could face forced production cuts within two weeks.

Brent's June contract expired Tuesday. The new July front month trades $6 lower, and that mechanical drop is why the screen looks bearish today, not the news.

The EU has spent €24 billion more on energy since the Iran war began, with diesel up 26% and Germany cutting fuel taxes to soften the household hit.

The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending six decades inside the cartel and freeing Abu Dhabi to push production toward 5 million barrels a day.

Tehran put a Hormuz-for-blockade offer on the White House desk over the weekend, with nuclear talks shelved to a later phase. Markets are pricing the delay.